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MAY 9,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET, EXCEPT FOR THE NOTE ABOUT THE RETURN OF AMERICAN PRISONERS FROM NORTH KOREA, WHICH WAS ADDED LATER. 

DON'T TELL AL GORE – FROM PHILLY.COM:   Temperatures in the contiguous United States were 2.2 degrees below 20th Century averages last month, making it the coldest April in 20 years, according to the government analysis released Tuesday.  Overall it was the ninth-chilliest April on record in Pennsylvania in records dating to 1895, said the National Center for Environmental Information.  In Philadelphia, 21 of the 30 days were cooler than normal, and coincidentally the official temperature at Philadelphia International Airport also finished 2.2 degrees below the 30-year average and featured a significant snowfall.  You know, of course, that this is caused by global warming.  As are hurricanes, blizzards, and chilly pizza. 

GINA GAINS – FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER:  Sen. Susan Collins, one of two Republican senators in the Senate Intelligence Committee who had been holding out on a decision on whether to vote in favor of Gina Haspel, President Trump's nominee for CIA director, has committed to voting 'yes,' effectively giving Haspel the votes she needs to pass with a simple majority.  The Maine Republican announced her decision in a statement early Wednesday evening, hours after Haspel testified at a confirmation hearing before the committee, where she faced tough questions about her her prior work at the agency overseeing programs that involved torture.  "After careful consideration, I will vote for the confirmation of Gina Haspel to become the next Director of the Central Intelligence Agency," Collins said.   Ms. Haspel, who has received praise from across the intelligence community, and from representatives of both Democratic and Republican administrations, was treated horribly by California Senator Kamala Harris, when testifying before the Intelligence Committee.  Haspel is an outstanding public servant, and I trust she'll be confirmed by the entire Senate.  Harris is a minor senator with presidential ambitions, and something of an embarrassment.

GREAT MOMENT – FROM AP:   JOINT BASE ANDREWS, Md. — Three Korean-Americans who were detained in North Korea for more than a year were greeted by President Donald Trump beneath a giant American flag after they returned to the mainland U.S. early Thursday.  Despite a middle-of-the-night landing, first lady Melania Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and a host of senior administration officials joined Trump to celebrate the occasion. The men, Kim Dong Chul, Kim Hak Song and Tony Kim, had been released Wednesday amid a warming of relations between the longtime adversaries.  The real star of the event was our new secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, who negotiated the release.  A very successful debut.

May 9, 2018       Permalink

STUNNING POLL RESULT – AT 7:09 P.M. ET:  We're having a midterm Congressional election this year.  Normally, the party of the president loses substantially in Congress in the first midterm following the presidential election.

And so it has been expected that the Democrats will gain in November, maybe even enough to take over one or both houses of Congress.  Indeed, polls only a few months ago showed the Dems, as a party, with a double-digit lead over the GOP.

But wait a minute.  What's this?

This is a new CNN poll that sounds alarm bells for the smug Dems.  It follows a trend we've been seeing since those double-digit-lead days.  From CNN: 

Washington  (CNN) The generic congressional ballot has continued to tighten, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS, with the Democrats' edge over Republicans within the poll's margin of sampling error for the first time this cycle.

About six months out from Election Day, 47% of registered voters say they back the Democratic candidate in their district, 44% back the Republican. Voters also are divided almost evenly over whether the country would be better off with the Democrats in control of Congress (31%) or with the GOP in charge (30%). A sizable 34% -- including nearly half of independent voters (48%) -- say it doesn't matter which party controls Congress. 

COMMENT:  Aside from the obvious erosion of Democratic strength, the poll provides further bad news for the Democrats.  Note that the survey was taken among registered voters.  Polls of likely voters are almost always more accurate, and almost always show more Republican support – because Republicans are more reliable voters.

The Dems cannot be happy.  Maybe they should spend more time coming up with attractive proposals, and attractive candidates, and less time hating the president.  Ya think?

May 9, 2018       Permalink 

IS MERKEL BUDGING? – AT 10:18 A.M. ET:  It sure looks that way.  From Reuters: 

BERLIN - German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Wednesday the Iran nuclear deal should not be questioned but that there should be talks about a broader agreement that goes beyond the original accord.

Merkel also said she took note with regret and concern of President Donald Trump's decision to pull the United States out of the landmark 2015 Iran nuclear accord, which lifted sanctions on Tehran in exchange for limits on its nuclear program.

COMMENT:  In these diplomatic matters you always look for the one line that makes the difference.  During the Cuban Missile Crisis, President Kennedy picked one optimistic line out of a long, hostile statement by Nikita Khrushchev, and used it as the basis for a peaceful conclusion.

What Merkel said is important.  She has been the toughest of the European leaders in backing the original Iran nuclear agreement.  But here she is saying there should be talks about a broader agreement that goes beyond the original.  That is exactly what Trump is saying, and maybe we're seeing the finding of common ground.

May 9, 2018       Permalink

BULLETIN:  NORTH KOREA FREES THREE AMERICANS – AT 9:58 A.M. ET:  FROM CNBC:

President Donald Trump said Wednesday that three American prisoners released from North Korea were headed home, a sign of potential good will ahead of Trump's planned meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

In a tweet, Trump said "the 3 wonderful gentlemen that everyone is looking so forward to meeting" were accompanying Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on his way back from a visit to North Korea.

The president then tweeted that Pompeo and the three men would arrive at Andrews Air Force Base at 2 a.m., and that he would greet them.

COMMENT:  Brilliantly done by President Trump and our new secretary of state, Mike Pompeo.   Remember when the Dems complained that Pompeo was too tough and not committed enough to diplomacy?  This is Pompeo's answer.

May 9,  2018     Permalink

NOTE TO READERS:  WE HAD A TECHNICAL PROBLEM EARLIER TODAY THAT WIPED OUT SOME OF OUR POSTS FOR A TIME.  WE ARE WHOLE AGAIN.

MAY 8,  2018

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET:

DODGING A BULLET – The Republicans dodged a bullet in West Virginia today.  From CBS News:  CBS News has called the West Virginia Senate GOP primary race for the state's attorney general Patrick Morissey. Moments earlier, Don Blankenship, the convicted ex-coal baron Washington Republicans feared might win, conceded.  "You're going to have a senator that works for all West Virginians," Morrisey said in his victory speech.  President Trump urged Republicans in the state not to vote for Blankenship, citing his inability to win the general election in November, as the GOP looks to unseat Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin. Blankenship cited Mr. Trump's tweet as perhaps the biggest factor in his loss. He came in third, behind both Morrisey and Evan Jenkins.  Trump carried West Virginia by a wide margin in 2016, and has real political clout there.  Joe Manchin must be in deep worry.  He's had many chances to switch to the Republican Party, which probably would have guaranteed his political future.  But he stayed with the Dems, and runs a serious risk of going down to defeat in November, flipping the seat to the GOP.  Look for the president to do serious campaigning in West Virginia.

AND ELSEWHERE – Republicans seem in reasonable shape to flip Democratic Senate seats.  From CNN:  Congressman Jim Renacci, who had the endorsement of President Trump, will win the GOP Primary in Ohio, setting up a fall race with Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown, CNN projects.  Renacci took on self-funding businessman Mike Gibbons in this primary...Mike Braun, businessman and former state representative, has won Indiana's Republican primary, CNN projects, and is now set to face Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly in one of the marquee Senate contests of this year's midterm elections.  From the Dayton Daily News:  President Trump’s hand-picked U.S. Senate candidate Congressman Jim Renacci will take on U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown this fall after defeating Cleveland businessman Mike Gibbons and several other challengers in Tuesday’s GOP primary.  Renacci, a former car dealer who has served in the U.S. House since 2011, was easily the best known of the Republican candidates. Brown is unopposed on the Democratic side and, for now at least, is a favorite to win in November. The oft-quoted Crystal Ball rating system for the University of Virginia Center for Politics lists Ohio’s Senate race as “leans Democratic.”  At least the GOP tonight didn't nominate any nut cases.  If Trump can help pull off some miracles in November, he should be in fine shape for 2020.

THE WORLD HAS NOT BLOWN UP – And that is the big news, and a surprise to some, following President Trump's announcement that he is withdrawing the United States from the Iran nuclear agreement.  His announcement was not that shocking – Washington pretty much expected it – and the decision to withdraw matched his campaign rhetoric.  Of course, CNN was immediately on the air and managed, in a lengthy discussion, to avoid any mention of Field Marshal Barack Obama and his role in creating the disagraceful agreement.  And Christiane Amanpour, from whom no good can come, went totally irrational in seeming to blame every problem in the Mideast on Bibi Netanyahu.  The Iranian regime was treated benignly, if at all.  It was an alternative universe.

The real action will come in the next eight weeks or so.  Trump left some wiggle room for further talks with Iran that could improve the nuclear agreement, thus avoiding crushing new sanctions on Tehran that the Iranians are desperate to duck.  And our European allies, eager to maintain the agreement and the trade with Iran that goes with it, may well step forward and help us extract further concessions from Iran.

The story is not over.  This will be a substantial test of Trump's resolve, but also his negotiating skills. 

As usual, Trump got almost no support from the Democrats.  The idea of a bipartisan foreign policy, especially when confronting an enemy nation, is essentially dead.

More on this tomorrow.

May 8, 2018       Permalink

BULLETIN:  PRESIDENT TRUMP ANNOUNCES HE IS PULLING OUT OF THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL.  WE'LL HAVE MORE AS INFORMATION IS GATHERED.

SHOCK – AT 1:23 P.M. ET:   There is a sense of shock here in the rickety state of New York at the sudden political decapitation of our ambitious, ultra-liberal attorney general, Eric Schneiderman, over severe sexual assault charges.  The New York Post headlines it, JEKYLL AND SCHNEID.

Schneiderman, a legend in his own mind, had established himself as Donald Trump's number one adversary in New York, having his office investigate a number of Trump's business dealings.  He also established himself as a supporter of the "me too" movement of women who allege that they've been sexually abused.  Now they're saying "him too."  From AFP: 

New York (AFP) - New York state's top prosecutor, a public defender of the #MeToo movement and antagonist of Donald Trump, has become the latest public figure to resign over allegations of sexual misconduct.

Eric Schneiderman, a 63-year-old progressive Democrat serving a second elected term as state attorney general, resigned late Monday hours after being accused of physically assaulting four women.

I love the term "progressive."  It's kind of a code word for "left of liberal."

It was a swift fall from power for the chief law enforcement official in the state, an outspoken Trump opponent whose office had launched multiple legal challenges against the Republican administration.

"Gotcha," tweeted White House counselor to the president, Kellyanne Conway, although there was no immediate response from Trump.

"While these allegations are unrelated to my professional conduct or the operations of the office, they will effectively prevent me from leading the office’s work at this critical time," he said.

"I therefore resign my office, effective at the close of business on May 8."

Two of the women spoke to The New Yorker on the record, alleging that Schneiderman repeatedly hit them, often after drinking, frequently in bed and never with their consent.

Both say they sought medical attention after having been slapped hard across the ear and face, and also choked, the magazine said.  

COMMENT:  Here is the question:  Did no one know that this "progressive" supporter of women's rights was actually an abusive monster?  The charges against him go far beyond the usual in cases involving public figures.  This is real abuse – physical and possibly life-threatening.  Now, of course, we must remind that the accused is innocent unless and until proved guilty, but the breadth of the charges is deeply disturbing.

Nobody knew nothin' about this guy?  What about the press?  Did it vet him properly, or were his leftist credentials enough?  This may turn out to be a major press failure.   The now-resigned attorney general was well known.  His stands were familiar.  You mean, there weren't even rumors about his dark, private side?  Come now.

May 8, 2018       Permalink

BIG DAY – AT 11:49 A.M. ET:  Yes, it will be a very big day in American politics.  First, the president will announce his decision on the Iran nuclear deal at 2 p.m. ET.  All the speculators are out in force this morning, announcing their sense of dread.  Why, if Trump doesn't do exactly what John Kerry wants, civilization will end, even affirmative action will end, the Universe will be no more, and the Obama library and sacred site will not be built.

It's terribly depressing, but I prefer to wait to hear what the president actually says.

And today we have four primaries – West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina.  The most interesting race is the one for the GOP Senate nomination in West Virginia.  West Virginia is a decidedly pro-Trump state, but one of its senators, Joe Manchin, is a moderate Democrat who'll be fighting for his survival in November.  The Republicans, as usual, are trying hard to lose that election. 

Three candidates are running for the GOP Senate nomination.   And the man who has a slight edge, Don Blankenship, is an obnoxious, convicted felon, who uses racial language and has already slurred Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's Chinese-born wife.  President Trump is urging his supporters not to vote for Blankenship, arguing that Blankenship would have no chance against Manchin in November.  We'll see that the voters say.

In Indiana, three Republicans are vying for the Senate nomination, hoping to unseat Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly in a very Republican state.  Vice President Pence is from Indiana, and may have some influence in the race.  A possible Republican November pickup, if the party can unite after the primary.

In Ohio, always a major political state, two Republicans are vying for the Senate nomination.  The winner will run against very liberal Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown in November.  Trump won Ohio in 2016, but unseating the reasonably popular Brown will be a challenge, but a good candidate and unified campaign could succeed, against the odds.

There are no statewide races in North Carolina.

It is imperative that our side keep control of the United States Senate, the body that confirms judges, including nominees to the Supreme Court.  The quality of the Republican nominees who are victorious tonight may well determine whether control can be kept, and even expanded.

May 8,  2018     Permalink